FXUS61 KGYX 191937 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 337 PM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... It will remain mild tonight with areas of fog and stratus developing after dark. Some of this fog may be locally dense through Thursday morning. A storm system will swing through the area Thursday night into Friday. While mostly rain is anticipated, some snow accumulation is likely in the higher elevations and maybe even into some of the northern valleys. The weekend will be breezy but mostly dry outside of some mountain rain and snow showers. Then early next week another storm will approach from the southwest with another chance of rain or snow. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... This afternoon, a layer of low-level stratus is situated over the Gulf of Maine. These clouds will move onshore with winds changing to southeasterlies this afternoon. By tonight, the low- level stratus starts to spread across most of New Hampshire and Maine. Overnight, low-level moisture advects onshore, forcing some of the fog to precipitate as drizzle. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Low-level stratus overhead should allow for foggy and drizzly conditions tomorrow, with high temperatures likely in the 40s. However, the CT River Valley and areas along the NH/MA border could see warmer temperatures with 50s likely in these locations. These regions are most likely to see a some breaks in the clouds tomorrow, allowing for more daytime heating to reach the surface. Fog and drizzle continues through tomorrow night. A front arrives from the west tomorrow night, with rain moving across northern New England tomorrow morning. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Message: And active extended forecast is on tap with plenty of chances for precip. This will all culminate in a large trof developing over the eastern half of CONUS helping to keep temps averaging below normal. Impacts: As runoff makes it way into the river systems we will continue to watch for ice movement and potential jams Fri into the weekend. Additionally there will be the chance for some accumulating snow...in the higher terrain early Fri and again early next week. Forecast Details: Frontal wave will be moving thru the region early Fri. S/WV trof will be amplifying as it crosses the Northeast. Uncertainty is largely a result of how amplified that trof gets...with 19.12z ECMWF favoring more of an open wave and the 19.12z GFS becoming a closed upper low. There is less ensemble support for the GFS solution...so I preferred to keep the QPF at or below the ensemble mean. There will be some transition to snow in the higher elevations...generally 2 or more inches confined to above 2000 ft. Below that rainfall will make its way into the river basins and start to move ice around again. So ice jams will once again become a threat. It will be breezy behind the departing front/low pressure on Fri. Then a secondary cold front will cross the region Sat into Sun. This will result in another breezy day Sun under cold advection regime. Upper low over the Upper Midwest will move east early next week lifting a warm front towards the Northeast. Once again this system will come down to timing. High pressure building across southern Canada could help to keep low level colder air locked in place ahead of the warm front. Precip could also speed up and move in over Sun night where temps are more likely to be cooler. If that is the case snow is possible for a large portion of the forecast area. If things remain timed for Mon afternoon then more of a snow to rain mix is likely...or even mostly rain. It is far too early for those kind of details though...but I have used the ensemble members to better time PoP...as NBM at this time is too slow and too broad with window of opportunity. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term... VFR expected this afternoon across the interior, with some low-level stratus moving into the coast. This evening low-level stratus moves farther inland, reaching the coastal plain and southern NH tonight, bringing these sites down to IFR. Overnight, the stratus continues to progress inland, with most places seeing IFR or LIFR restrictions by tomorrow morning. The main exception is in and around HIE, as weak downsloping keeps drier air in place. Low restrictions elsewhere continue all day tomorrow and through Friday morning. Long Term...Areas of IFR will be ongoing Fri morning as rain moves thru the TAF sites. VFR conditions will return to most of the area Fri afternoon...with MVFR CIGs lingering in the mtns around HIE. Surface gusts around 25 kt possible at all terminals in the afternoon. A secondary cold front crosses the area over the weekend which may prolong or reintroduce MVFR CIGs in the mtns...along with bringing another round of 25 kt surface gusts. && .MARINE... Short Term... Seas of 4-6 ft are expected this afternoon through Friday morning, an SCA has been issued. Southeasterly winds at 6-10kt continue through tomorrow morning, strengthening to 8-13kts by the end of tomorrow. Southeasterly winds then gradually weaken tomorrow night. Long Term...With the active period of weather coming up it is likely that a headline will be up over the coastal waters more often than not. SCA conditions will be developing Fri with seas above 5 ft...but winds become gusty Fri afternoon and prolongs the SCA. Winds and seas outside of the bays may linger around marginal SCA conditions Sat...but gusty winds return Sun. The best shot for headlines to come down will be Mon ahead of the next storm approaching from the southwest. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ150-152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Palmer SHORT TERM...Palmer LONG TERM...Legro AVIATION/MARINE...Legro/Palmer