FGUS73 KBIS 261708 ESFBIS NDC009-013-023-049-069-075-079-101-270115- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026 ...FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK... This Flood and Water Resources Outlook is for the Souris River Basin of North Dakota, covering the period of March 30th through June 28th, 2026. The following message has four sections. The first provides some text on the highlights of this outlook and conditions affecting the local hydrology. The second section gives the current and historical risks of flooding as determined by the Ensemble Streamflow Forecast model of the National Weather Service. The third section gives the current probabilities for reaching flood stage at the listed forecast locations. And finally, the fourth section covers the risk of the river sites falling below the listed stages. ...Flood Outlook Highlights... The overall flood risk for forecast locations from the Souris River River at Sherwood all the way down through the Souris River at Minot and Velva is near to below normal for this time of the year. That reflects a lack of snowcover in the upper and middle reaches of the basin, and a favorable melt cycle to what snowpack previously existed. There is a higher than normal risk of Minor Flooding at Bantry on the Souris River and on Willow Creek at Willow City, where enough collective runoff has already been generated to result in increased flows into early April. There also remains 1 to 2 inches of additional Snow-Water Equivalent (SWE) yet to melt in parts of the Turtle Mountain region. Collectively, the runoff currently working its way through the system and additional snowmelt in the Turtle Mountain Region is enough to cause the higher than normal probabilities of Minor Flooding at the Bantry and Willow City forecast points, and near normal odds of Minor Flooding from Towner on the Souris River downstream through the Souris River at Westhope. However, the gentle melt cycle and lack of more significant SWE means that the odds of anything more than Minor Flooding are in the normal range for this time of the year, even at those locations. In general, melting of the snowpack has resulted in runoff at all points in the Souris River Basin of North Dakota in the last few weeks. In most cases, the combination of a favorably-slow melt and relatively low SWE values has generally prevented problematic high water. Despite the lack of snowcover, soils are wet across much of the Souris River basin, and soils are only slowly thawing. As a result, if a heavy snow or heavy rain event was to occur, it could generate enough runoff to cause increased flows on creeks and streams. However, the outlook probabilities already account for both current soil conditions and the historical frequency of springtime rain and snow events. ...Snowpack Conditions... The snowpack has melted over most of the southern and western parts parts of the Souris River basin, with no snowcover present as of late March from Sherwood down through the Minot, Velva, and Towner areas. There remains a modest snowpack in the upper reaches of the Souris River basin in southern Saskatchewan, where Snow-Water Equivalent (SWE) values of a trace to to 1 inch are present in some areas. That is well within the normal to below-normal range of SWE values for the upper reaches of the basin at this time of the year. The one portion of the Souris River basin that continues to have a more notable, albeit melting snowpack is in the Turtle Mountain region. Recent warm weather has melted some of that snowpack in the last week, which is currently resulting in noteworthy runoff into the lower portions of the Souris River basin. SWE values in the Turtle Mountain area remain in the 1 to 2 inch range, suggesting there is still some water available to melt and produce additional runoff. However, the melt cycle has been relatively gentle, and the amount of remaining SWE in the Turtle Mountain area is generally lower than past years that had significant flooding. However, given the wet and still thawing soils, under the right conditions, this could still produce surprising amounts of runoff, such as if heavy rain were to occur. ...Current Drought Conditions... There are no drought designations within the Souris River Basin of North Dakota. ...Reservoirs and Natural Wetlands... Reservoirs and natural wetlands are generally well within the normal range of their long-term trends for this time of year. All flood control projects are at, or below, their desired early spring levels. ...Soil Conditions... Earlier widespread melting of the snowpack over much of the Souris River basin has resulted in very high near surface soil moisture values. The Turtle Mountain area retained more of its snowpack and as a result the soil moisture values in that part of the basin are closer to normal. Soils have begun to warm, but soil temperatures vary considerably across the basin. The top few inches of the soil have warmed to near freezing in most parts of the basin as the thawing process has progressed the last week or two. However, deeper layers of the soils continue to be below freezing across much of the basin. In fact, in the Turtle Mountain area, the frost depth remains as deep as around 30 inches in some areas where snowcover has lasted the longest. ...Weather Outlook... The short term weather forecast calls for warm and mainly dry weather to close out the month of March, but the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks favor above normal precipitation probabilities for North Dakota in early April. The overall weather pattern will begin to favor cooler temperatures, as well, especially in northern parts of the state in the 6-10 and 8-14 day period. Looking further out, when considering the outlook for the full month of April, there are equal chances of above-normal, near-normal, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. This ultimately suggests that a relatively normal spring weather pattern featuring large variability is highly probable the next few weeks. That includes the aforementioned potential for a wetter and cooler start to April. Looking even longer term, the 3-month outlook covering April, May, and June has almost all of the Missouri and James River basins in equal chances for above-normal, near-normal, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. The exception is the southwestern corner of North Dakota, which favors above-normal temperatures in that 3-month period. This is consistent with historical trends for the area as a La Nina pattern fades through the spring. In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stage are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is greater than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: Valid Period: 03/30/2026 - 06/28/2026 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Des Lacs Foxholm 1651.0 1653.0 1654.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Souris Sherwood 1623.0 1625.0 1630.0 : <5 12 <5 5 <5 <5 Foxholm 1573.0 1576.0 1578.0 : 8 33 <5 16 <5 <5 Minot 1562.0 1565.0 1570.0 : <5 16 <5 6 <5 <5 Minot 1551.0 1553.0 1557.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Logan 1536.0 1538.0 1540.0 : 6 19 <5 <5 <5 <5 Sawyer 1524.0 1526.0 1528.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 Velva 1507.0 1512.0 1517.0 : 5 17 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Wintering Karlsruhe 1509.0 1511.0 1512.0 : 7 16 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Souris Towner 1454.0 1456.0 1458.0 : 37 62 17 26 <5 <5 Bantry 1440.0 1441.0 1443.0 : >95 64 28 43 <5 9 :Willow Creek Willow City 1442.0 1446.0 1448.0 : >95 48 23 22 <5 6 :Souris Westhope 1414.0 1418.0 1420.0 : 34 56 7 26 <5 17 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Des Lacs Foxholm 1641.6 1641.6 1641.6 1641.6 1643.1 1644.5 1645.6 :Souris Sherwood 1610.3 1610.3 1610.4 1610.7 1614.6 1619.7 1620.4 Foxholm 1570.6 1570.6 1570.6 1570.6 1570.9 1572.9 1576.0 Minot 1554.5 1554.5 1554.5 1554.5 1555.0 1556.7 1561.4 Minot 1543.1 1543.1 1543.1 1543.1 1543.3 1544.1 1546.2 Logan 1527.3 1527.3 1527.3 1527.3 1528.2 1533.8 1536.7 Sawyer 1512.9 1512.9 1512.9 1512.9 1515.2 1521.2 1522.7 Velva 1497.1 1497.1 1497.1 1497.1 1500.5 1506.4 1507.1 :Wintering Karlsruhe 1505.5 1505.5 1505.5 1505.5 1507.4 1508.4 1509.3 :Souris Towner 1454.0 1454.0 1454.0 1454.0 1455.1 1456.6 1456.8 Bantry 1440.3 1440.3 1440.3 1440.3 1441.1 1442.2 1442.4 :Willow Creek Willow City 1443.7 1443.8 1444.3 1444.9 1445.9 1446.7 1447.6 :Souris Westhope 1413.4 1413.4 1413.4 1413.6 1415.0 1416.9 1418.4 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Des Lacs Foxholm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 :Souris Sherwood 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Foxholm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Minot 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Minot 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Logan 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Sawyer 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Velva 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 :Wintering Karlsruhe 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 :Souris Towner 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Bantry 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 :Willow Creek Willow City 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 :Souris Westhope 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Visit our web site weather.gov/bis for more weather and water information. The next outlook will be issued by the end of April. $$ CJS